Euro Gagal untuk Tahan Kenaikan Terinspirasi Jepang

Euro tidak dapat mempertahankan kenaikan moderat terhadap dolar Selasa (8/1), setelah menteri keuangan Jepang mengatakan Tokyo akan menggunakan bagian dari cadangan devisa untuk membeli obligasi diterbitkan oleh the European Stability Mechanism, dana bailout zona-euro.

Indeks dolar yang mengukur mata uangnya terhadap sejumlah mata uang utama, diperdagangkan di 80.329 dibandingkan dengan 80.256 di perdagangan AS Senin kemarin.

Euro tergelincir ke $1.3065 dari $1.3111.

Mata uang itu memperdagangkan setinggi $1.3140 setelah Menteri Keuangan Taro Aso menyatakan minatnya untuk membeli obligasi ESM, dengan putaran pertama dari pembelian yang mungkin terjadi di kemudian hari.

“Menggunakan cadangan devisa Jepang yang ada tidak akan memiliki implikasi untuk yen dan kita akan menafsirkan komentar karena lebih dari peristiwa euro/dollar-positif sejauh itu memperkuat kecenderungan diversifikasi cadangan ke dalam obligasi ESM dan jauh dari dolar,” Sue Trinh, seorang pakar mata uang senior di RBC Capital Markets, menulis dalam sebuah catatan pada klien.

Euro muncul sebagian besar muatan untuk diperdagangkan kisaran ketat menjelang pertemuan Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) Kamis. Ekspektasi untuk pemangkasan suku bunga telah pudar di tengah sinyal kecenderungan menurun ekonomi wilayah tersebut menunjukkan tanda mencari sebab dalam kuartal keempat.

Keseluruhan, data sebagian masih bias menurun, bagaimanapun, Jeremy Stretch mencatat, pakar mata uang di CIBC di London.

“Di latarbelakangi data perdagangan mengecewakan di Perancis dan Jerman, ekspor dan impor lebih lemah dan lambungan lebih moderat pada sentimen bisnis euro di bulan Desember menekankan isu fiskal AS terhapus kurangnya pertumbuhan euro dan implikasi negatif untuk cerita utang cenderung untuk datang kembali ke permukaan,” dia mengatakan dalam sebuah catatan pada klien.

Sementara itu, yen Jepang mengapresiasi pada dolar dan euro. Laporan media mengutip menteri pemerintah mengatakan bahwa Tokyo akan membuat bagian target inflasi 2% dari kesepakatan kebijakan baru dengan bank sentral tetapi menambahkan bahwa bahwa kesepakatan itu tidak akan menetapkan batas waktu untuk mencapai target itu.

Tentu saja, yen “tengah jatuh terus dengan terdepresiasi sebenarnya, ini karena ada tampaknya terus menjadi praduga ingin membeli penurunan,” Stretch mengatakan.

Dolar turun ke ¥87.49 dari ¥87.83, sementara euro turun ke ¥114.65 dari ¥115.12.

Di antara mata uang utama lain, pound berubah posisi di $1.6056 dari $1.6109, sementara dolar Australia mencapai $1.0481 dari $1.0503.

Dealmaking Hits Bump as Market Slump Prompts Lowest Takeovers in 8 Months

Concerns about a declining global stock market and slowing economic growth are taking a toll on dealmaking, with takeovers in June tumbling to the lowest level in eight months.

The total value of takeovers announced so far this month fell 22 percent from May to about $178 billion, leaving second- quarter volume little changed from the previous three months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. At least two banks went for a week or more without a new mandate starting at the end of May, said senior advisers who declined to be identified. Business has been sluggish since then, they said.

The global recovery that spurred companies to pursue takeovers earlier in the quarter stumbled in June with Greece seeking to avoid a default and the U.S. Federal Reserve lowering growth forecasts. That has led to a dip in stock markets worldwide and may be temporarily overshadowing companies’ plans to expand their businesses and spend stockpiled cash.

“The market has taken a bit of a breather,” said Jack MacDonald, co-head of Americas M&A at Bank of America Corp. in Palo Alto, California. “Given economic headwinds and market volatility, CEOs seem to be taking a brief pause before pulling the trigger on transformational transactions.”

Fewer Purchases

U.S. central bankers said the economy will expand as much as 2.9 percent this year, down from a maximum forecast of 3.3 percent in April. Gross domestic product slowed to 1.9 percent in the first quarter from 3.1 percent in the previous period, according to Commerce Department figures released June 24.

Out of the 20 largest acquisitions in the second quarter, four were announced in June, the data show. Capital One Financial Corp. agreed to purchase online bank ING Direct USA for $9.1 billion on June 16, and gas distributor Southern Union Co. (SUG) received competing takeover bids of more than $4 billion from Williams Cos. and Energy Transfer Equity LP this month. Carrefour SA said yesterday it’s considering a proposal to merge its Brazilian assets with a local retailer.

Other deals were scuttled during the period. Smithfield Foods Inc. (SFD) this month halted a $700 million purchase of a 50 percent stake in Spain’s Campofrio Food Group SA, citing weakness in Europe and in Smithfield’s own share price. The stock has dropped more than 7 percent in the past two months.

The MSCI World (MXWO) Index has declined similarly after the benchmark hit an almost three-year high in May. The index climbed 1.5 percent to 1,315.38 at 4:30 p.m. New York time.

Deals Derailed

At the same time, corporate debt sales are falling globally, while yields relative to government bonds widen, partly on investor concern that Greece won’t be able to meet debt obligations. High-yield loans used to finance buyouts are headed for their first monthly loss of the year, led by Europe, according to Credit Suisse Group AG’s Leveraged Loan Index.

“Macro factors, which have caused volatility in the stock markets and the recent pullback in leveraged finance, can derail certain deals,” said Ehren Stenzler, co-head of U.S. M&A at UBS AG in New York. “We tend to think it is temporary, but those factors could cause companies to push the pause button for a bit on certain deals.”

Retailer Big Lots Inc. (BIG) abandoned plans for a sale in May after bids from leveraged buyout firms came in lower than anticipated, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.

In an auction for Gen-Probe Inc. (GPRO), a maker of disease- testing diagnostics, bidders Life Technologies Corp. and Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. dropped out of the process when the asking price neared $80 a share, another person said. Novartis AG (NOVN) may still be interested, the person said. Shares of San Diego-based Gen-Probe have since fallen to $68.41.

Price Concern

Henkel AG Chief Executive Officer Kasper Rorsted said in an interview this week that deal price has been a roadblock for companies looking to make acquisitions, rather than the broader macroeconomic environment. He said he sees attractive assets in the U.S. and Europe.

Executives are getting more accustomed to the ups and downs of the market, according to Henrik Aslaksen, global head of M&A at Deutsche Bank AG in London.

“Volatility in today’s world does not stop a healthy company making important strategic decisions and acting on them,” Aslaksen said. “The cost of capital remains relatively low on a historic basis, and corporates have strong balance sheets.”

‘Still Rallying’

The top 1,000 non-financial companies are still sitting on more than $3.4 trillion in cash, and shareholders are rewarding strategic acquisitions by pushing up acquirers’ stock prices, Bloomberg data show. Apparel maker VF Corp. surged 10 percent on June 13 when it announced a deal to buy Timberland Co. for about $1.8 billion.

As global stock markets gained in April, Johnson & Johnson agreed to pay $21.3 billion for medical device maker Synthes Inc. and Exelon Corp. (EXC), the largest operator of U.S. nuclear power plants, said it would buy Constellation Energy Group Inc. (CEG) for about $7.9 billion in stock.

“Investors are still rallying around a deal that looks to grow the top line,” said Michael Boublik, chairman of M&A, Americas at Morgan Stanley.

The market for takeovers in North America held up better than other regions in June, with announced deals rising 14 percent from May to more than $82 billion. The dollar volume of transactions fell by more than 60 percent in Western Europe and more than 40 percent in Asia Pacific in that same period.

“We still see much greater confidence in the U.S., and we are having many more conversations with U.S. buyers of European companies,” said Giuseppe Monarchi, head of Europe, Middle East and Africa M&A for Credit Suisse Group AG. “But there is less visibility on large transactions than we had several weeks ago, partly because of Greece.”

Active Buyers

Hernan Cristerna, head of M&A for Europe, Middle East and Africa, at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in London, also said that U.S. acquirers have been active in Europe, while European companies are targeting growth in emerging markets.

“Companies are not just looking for cost synergies, but real growth,” he said.

Worldwide, announced deals in the second quarter rose to almost $620 billion, or less than 1 percent from the first three months of the year, according to data through June 28.

Year to date, JPMorgan is leading financial advisers in global M&A transactions at $269.2 billion in deal volume, just ahead of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., according to Bloomberg data. Rounding out the top five are Credit Suisse and Citigroup Inc.www.bloomberg.com

New Zealand Dollar Heads for Weekly Loss on Greece, Slowing U.S. Economy

New Zealand’s dollar headed for its biggest weekly decline in six weeks as speculation that Greece’s debt crisis will worsen damped demand for higher-yielding assets.

Australia’s currency was 0.9 percent from a three-week low against the greenback before a report that economists said will show U.S. consumer confidence fell in June as the world’s largest economy slows. A default by Greece is “almost certain” and could help drive theU.S. economy into recession, according to former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan.

“Greece’s debt issue and a slowdown in the U.S. economy remain the main focus of the markets,” said Kengo Suzuki, manager of the foreign bond department in Tokyo at Mizuho Securities Co., a unit of Japan’s third-largest bank. “Reduced risk-appetite is weighing on the Aussie and kiwi.”

New Zealand’s dollar traded at 80.63 U.S. cents as of 11:49 a.m. in Sydney from 80.48 cents in New York yesterday, having dropped 1.8 percent this week. The so-called kiwi was at 65.05 yen from 64.89 yen. Australia’s dollar bought $1.0557 from $1.0558 after sliding to $1.0478 yesterday, the lowest level since May 25. The currency was at 85.13 yen from 85.12 yen.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy will meet today in Berlin to discuss a rescue package for Greece. EU finance ministers agreed on June 14 to convene again on June 19 after they failed to reconcile a German-led push for bondholders to shoulder part of the cost of a new plan for Greek aid.

‘Extremely Unlikely’

“The problem you have is that it’s extremely unlikely the political system will work” in a way that solves Greece’s crisis, Greenspan, said in an interview yesterday with Charlie Rose in New York. “The chances of Greece not defaulting are very small.”

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet reiterated his opposition to any Greek bailout that forces private investors to participate, according to a transcript published by the ECB of an interview with The Times newspaper conducted June 13.

“The twin concern of markets at present was again at the fore -- Greece and the poor run of U.S. data,” Khoon Goh, head of market economics and strategy at ANZ National Bank Ltd. in Wellington, wrote in a note to clients. “Safe-haven currencies the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc were the top performers in the currency market, with the New Zealand dollar one of the worst-performing currencies.”

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan index of U.S. consumer sentiment slipped to 74 this month from 74.3 in May, according to economists surveyed before today’s report.

The two South Pacific currencies snapped a two-day decline as Asian shares halted losses.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares was little changed after sliding 2.3 percent yesterday. www.bloomberg.com