Aussie Near Two-Month Low on Fed as IMF Sees Currency Overvalue

Australia’s dollar approached a two-month low on concern the Federal Reserve will curb stimulus that has propped up asset prices worldwide, undermining the attractiveness of the currency as a higher-yielding asset.

The Aussie dropped yesterday by the most in three months after minutes of Fed officials’ last meeting showed $85 billion of monthly bond purchases might be reduced in coming months. The negative correlation between U.S. Treasury yields and the South Pacific nation’s currency has fallen to a seven-year low, signaling they are more likely to move in opposing directions. The International Monetary Fund said Australia’s currency “looks overvalued by around 10 percent.”

The Aussie retreated 0.1 percent to 93.26 U.S. cents as of 11:43 a.m. in Sydney after slumping 1.1 percent yesterday, the most since Aug. 21. It touched 92.69 on Nov. 12, the weakest since Sept. 16. New Zealand’s kiwi dollar fell 0.1 percent to 82.66 U.S. cents following a 1.2 percent tumble, the biggest since Oct. 23.

The 120-day correlation between the Aussie and the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was minus 0.36. It fell to minus 0.38 last month, the lowest since December 2006, from as high as 0.68 in November 2011.

Fed policy makers “generally expected that the data would prove consistent with the Committee’s outlook for ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and would thus warrant trimming the pace of purchases in coming months,” according to the record of the Federal Open Market Committee’s Oct. 29-30 gathering, released yesterday in Washington.

The U.S. yield touched 2.81 percent, a level unseen since Sept. 18. The yield on Australia’s 10-year government note added six basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, to 4.32 percent, the highest since March 2012.

(Source: Bloomberg)

Emas Masih Jadi Andalan

Minggu, 17 November 2013 05:31 WIB

TRIBUNNEWS.COM/HERUDIN

Customer service Bank BNI Syariah cabang Benhil Jakarta Pusat menunjukkan logam mulia emas ukuran 100 gram, Jumat (23/8/2013).

TRIBUNNEWS.COM, JAKARTA - Masyarakat Indonesia sudah sangat familiar dengan logam mulia satu ini, emas. Itulah sebabnya, di beberapa pialang investasi emas menjadi komoditas yang memiliki volume transaksi tertinggi.
Padahal, dalam perdagangan bursa komoditas (PBK) dan bursa berjangka, Indonesia memiliki banyak produk nonfinansial yang menyimpan peluang menarik, karena banyak pelaku bisnis yang membutuhkan, seperti olein, cacao, dan timah.
Adalah PT Jalatama Artha Berjangka (JAB), salah satu pialang yang terdaftar resmi di Bursa Berjangka Jakarta (BBJ), yang memiliki volume perdagangan emas cukup tinggi. Direktur Utama JAB Jacob Ongkowidjojo ditemui Kompas.com, Jumat (14/11/2013) menuturkan, hal itu dikarenakan komoditas tersebut diperdagangkan dalam dua sistem, bilateral dan multilateral.
“Masyarakat juga lebih familiar dengan emas,” ujar Jacoeb.
Saat ini di BBJ, emas diperdagangkan dengan satuan 1 kilogram per lot, 250 gram per lot, dan 100 gram per lot. Dengan satuan seberat ini, emas menduduki peringkat teratas sistem perdagangan bilateral, dengan penawaran kontrak Loco London Gold (Loco).
Menyusul emas, dalam sistem perdagangan bilateral ada kontrak Forex (foreign exchange) atau valuta asing dan Index Saham (stock index) yang bergantian saling mendominasi. Menurut Jacoeb, kondisi itu lantaran keduanya sangat terpengaruh faktor riil. Ketika saham sangat bergejolak, pasar bermain ke Forex, bursa yang bergerak.
“Emas relatif konstan di posisi teratas karena dia punya karakteristik sendiri sebagai objek investasi,” imbuh Jacoeb.
Sementara itu, sistem perdagangan multilateral di JAB didominasi komoditas olein, produk turunan crude palm oil (CPO). Jacoeb mengungkapkan kenapa emas tidak terlalu besar dalam perdagangan multilateral dikarenakan satuan emas yang besar, sehingga tidak bisa dipasarkan secara retail. Emas justru menduduki peringkat kedua, disusul cacao, dalam perdagangan multilateral.
Diakui Jacoeb, perdagangan multilateral baru mengambil porsi 10 persen dari keseluruhan rata-rata transaksi per bulan yang mencapai 15.000 lot. Untuk meningkatkan volume transaksi perdagangan emas tersebut, JAB bersama BBJ saat ini tengah menyusun spesifikasi yang lebih kecil untuk komoditas emas, yang terdiri dari 5 gram per lot, 10 gram per lot, dan 25 gram per lot.
“Sebagai pialang dan pemegang saham (BBJ), multilateral diusahakan bisa menyeimbangi bilateral. Membuat produk yang lebih marketable, dan mendiversifikasi produk sehingga menjangkau pasar yang lebih luas,” ujarnya . (Estu Suryowati)

Sumber : http://www.tribunnews.com/bisnis/2013/11/17/emas-masih-jadi-andalan

U.K. Gilts Fall Before Debt Sales This Week; Pound Slides

The pound fell versus all 16 of its major peers as investors awaited publication this week of minutes of the Bank of England’s most recent policy meeting, at which officials held interest rates at a record low.

Sterling slipped from a three-week high versus the dollar after an industry report showed U.K. house prices declined this month. Details of the central bank’s November Monetary Policy Committee meeting are due on Nov. 20. Benchmark government bonds rose. The Debt Management Office will sell 3.75 billion pounds ($6 billion) of 10-year securities tomorrow and 4.75 billion pounds of a note due in 2019 on Thursday.

Sterling slid 0.2 percent to 83.92 pence per euro at 5:05 p.m. London time. The pound bought $1.6112 from $1.6118 on Nov. 15. It earlier climbed to $1.6149, the highest since Oct. 28. The U.K. currency gained 0.6 percent versus the dollar last week.

At the Bank of England’s Nov. 7 policy meeting, officials kept the key rate at 0.5 percent and maintained its asset-purchase stimulus target at 375 billion pounds.

(Source: Bloomberg)